tonight at 10: we have the latest official evidence of the heavy human cost of the coronavirus pandemic. new figures shows a very sharp rise in the number of deaths per week in england and wales — 6,000 more than would be expected at this time of year. there's particular concern about care homes. 0ne charity says the elderly have been forgotten — ministers say that's not true. i would say to all those people working in care homes up and down the country, you know, whether it's the people in them, whether it's the people looking after them, you have absolutely not been forgotten. the economic impact of the crisis could be devastating. we report on the warnings of significant damage this year. the government's official forecaster

says the immediate hit could be worth a third of the value of the entire economy injust worth a third of the value of the entire economy in just three months before it bounces back. but in italy, spain and austria, a cautious lifting of restrictions for some businesses for a trial period. and the latest research on why coronavirus hits some apparently healthy people much harder than others. and in sport on bbc news: the former fa chairman, david bernstein, tells us football needs outside help to sort out its financial difficulties. good evening. the latest official evidence of the human cost of coronavirus shows a very sharp rise in the number of deaths per week throughout england and wales — 6000 more than would be expected at this time of year. the figures released

by the ons, the office for national statistics, relate to the week leading up to the 3rd april, since when the numbers have risen again, and there is particular concern about the situation in care homes and in the community at large. the new figures show that more than one in five deaths in england and wales are now linked to coronavirus. across the uk, there were 778 deaths reported in the last 24—hour period — most of those in hospitals. it means that so far, the official number of deaths in the uk linked to coronavirus is more than 12,000, but it's important to note that that number doesn't include deaths in care homes or in the community in england and northern ireland. the impact of the crisis on the economy is also causing concern. an independent report says that a three—month lockdown could cause the economy to shrink by as much as 13% this year. more on the economy in a moment, but first, our health editor

hugh pym on the latest figures. my mum, she was my best friend, she was kind, funny... candice remembers her mother, ann, who died with covid—19. she last saw her when she was in an ambulance on the way to hospital where she died 11 days ago. i'm never going to see my mum again and i'd rather not see the outside again. my mum was only 58 and it just wasn't her time. this is just the worst pain in the world. i think it's just not worth it, it's just not — going outside and meeting up with your friends. a tragic loss and there are many others suffered by families every day, and now new statistics reveal there are more than we thought. until very recently, all the focus on coronavirus deaths has been on those in hospitals — that's where the daily data comes from. but the latest set of stats shines some light on the spread of the virus in local communities and deaths there which might be directly or indirectly

linked to covid—19. weekly deaths in england and wales were at the highest since records began in 2005, according to the office for national statistics. in the week ending april 3rd, there were more than 16,300 deaths, that's around 6000 more than the average for this time of year. coronavirus cases contributed much of the jump, linked to nearly 3500. but it's not clear what's behind the rest, possibly some could be caused by people not seeking treatment for other conditions. it is possible that there are further deaths that relate to coronavirus that haven't been recorded as that. it is possible there are further deaths that relate to other conditions for which people perhaps have not accessed help in the way that they might have done in the past. the head of nhs england, after a big drop in a&e visits last month,

has urged patients not to stay away from hospitals. if you're a parent and you're worried about your child, if you're concerned about maybe having a heart attack or a stroke, any other essential need, please come forward, access the nhs — our staff are here to look after you. sir simon, who revealed he himself had had coronavirus and self—isolated forjust over a week, was meeting student nurses and doctors who volunteered for front line work. is it a bit daunting when you think about it? yes, it is daunting. obviously i have family and friends that i care about. and my health too, as well. but... ..it‘s an important time for everyone, to be part of it. boosting testing of patients and nhs staff wanting to return to work is an urgent priority and the government set an ambitious target of 100,000 a day by the end of this month — up from about 15,000 now. and the big pharmaceutical companies say they can help.

we'll be fully operational at the end of the month, the beginning of may, and by then, i think that lab‘s going to be contributing around 30,000 of the target. we're delighted to participate, we've got many of our scientists who are very engaged in that and keen to support that aspect of solutions. but supplies of personal protective equipment are still tight and there has been an urgent appeal to businesses to produce whatever they can for front line staff, to help save lives for the carers, as well as the patients they look after. hugh pym, bbc news. one of the most troubling elements of the new data from the 0ns is that around 1 in 10 of all deaths linked to coronavirus happened outside hospital, including at least 217 in care homes, and those figures are already some 11 days out of date. the charity age uk has warned that covid—19 is spreading in care homes "like wildfire". the government says it wants to speed up reporting of deaths in care homes and has already

confirmed that there have been outbreaks of covid—19 in more than 2000 homes in england, as our correspondent alex forsyth reports. my mum was a people's person. she told everyone she loved them and everyone loved her. rose mitchell was a familiar face on her street in south—west london. so much so, her neighbours stood outside to pay their respects on hearing that she'd died. at 81, she passed away in her care home after contracting coronavirus. her daughter and the rest of her family on the end of the phone. they held the phone to her ear, we could hear herjust breathing. and we played her danny boy, her favourite song. and we all told her we loved her and, um, said goodbye. karen says what's happening in care homes can't be overlooked, praising carers like those who were with her mum until the end. i can only say to them thank you,

because over the last week, that has brought us incredible comfort, to know that she wasn't alone. care homes across the country are reporting a rising number of deaths. here in liverpool, 15 residents. a further 13 people at this home in county durham, and here, near bristol, a significant number are said to have died. at philia lodge in peterborough, 16 out of 18 residents have shown symptoms and six have lost their lives. carers there, when family can't be. for now, grandma, this is goodbye but i know that you will always be with us in our hearts and that you've helped make so full of love and happy memories for us to treasure for ever. good night, sleep well. at this home, not far from wolverhampton, staff are frightened. impossible to keep their distance from each other, these carers say they are on the forgotten front line. it's just scary because they said

it's going to get worse, so when you keep thinking of what the next shift‘s going to be like, what's going to happen on this shift... are we going to have... it's mentally and physically draining. the staff are all quite worried because when we have ambulances come in, they've got the full on gear on and we haven't got a lot of ppe. you feel vulnerable. yeah, yeah, it's worrying as well because we're going back to our loved ones as well. the government says it is delivering millions of items or protective kit and increasing testing capacity, but managers here say it's not enough. they're not testing, they're not testing. we've had residents come back, who have been to a&e, and they come back and they are not testing them. do you feel like you are getting the support you need? not particularly, no. not really, no. some residents are staying positive even while separated from family. nobody knows how quick it's going to go away and i think it's going to take a long time. what's your plan when you finally get to see your family?

to have several gin and tonics and say hurray! 0ptimism despite real concern for society's most vulnerable and those who are trying to protect them. alex forsyth, bbc news. let's ask our social affairs correspondent alison holt for some more context. lots of figures for us to reflect on today, including, of course, the situation in so many care homes. so give us a bit of broad context around these? care homes and also those providing support for people in their own homes are dealing with some of the most vulnerable people in our society. care staff may be trained to look after people towards the ends of their life but frankly no one can prepare them for what they are dealing with right now. they are absolutely on the front line of tackling the virus. the time lag behind today's official figures means they can only hint at what they are coping with right now. the

stats show for the week ending the 3rd of april, that there were 406 deaths linked to covid—19 in the community in england and wales. that is in peoples own homes come in hospices and in care homes. to give you some context to that, there are about 430,000 older and disabled people living in care homes in england and across the uk, each week nearly 540,000 people receive some form of care in their own home. that adds up to1 form of care in their own home. that adds up to 1 million form of care in their own home. that adds up to1 million home form of care in their own home. that adds up to 1 million home care visits taking place each day. it's important to remember that this sort of care is really personal. it's washing, dressing, hoisting people and care providers say they still are not getting enough personal protective equipment and they want more testing, particularly of residents returning to home from hospital. we expect the government to set out an action plan for social

ca re to set out an action plan for social care related to coronavirus tomorrow and we expect that to include an expansion of the testing available. but i have to say, in a care sector which feels largely forgotten, there will be some scepticism about whether promises can be delivered. alison, we will talk again tomorrow, thank you. the pandemic is also having a devastating effect on the economy according to the latest predictions from the independent tax and spending watchdog, the 0br, the 0fficerfor budget responsibility. the chancellor, rishi sunak, speaking at the daily downing street news conference said he was "deeply troubled" by the figures. the 0br warns that if the lockdown lasts three months, with another three months of partial lifting, the uk economy could shrink by 35% between april and june this year before a likely recovery. in the model, experts predicted unemployment could rise to 10% of the working population.

this would more than double unemployment levels, and amount to a rise of two million jobless people, as our political editor laura kuenssberg reports. stuck on the shelf, stuck without trade. the shutdown's draining life from chris northcott‘s cider business, from the whole economy, too. we have a warehouse full of cider that we cannot sell and we are funding the shortfall through internet orders that come through into our business from our website. this is currently our only source of income. coronavirus presenting the government not just with a health emergency but a decade's defining downturn. these are tough times and there will be more to come, but we came into this crisis with a fundamentally sound economy. people are, of course, devastated by the numbers of people losing their lives, but tonight with warnings of 2 million extra people unemployed, people are also desperately worried about theirjobs. if you can level with people, do you think we will be feeling

the costs of this crisis for a generation? i also, when i see these numbers, am deeply troubled. i have consistently said when i've been at this podium and elsewhere, this is going to be hard, you know, our economy will take a significant hit. as i've said before, that is not an abstract thing, people are going to feel that in theirjobs and in their household incomes. your point about a generation — no, i very much hope that the measures we've put in place will allow us to do exactly as the 0br have said — bounce back. when the shutters roll up, the car parks fill again, and the close signs flip back over, the report suggests the economy could recover fast, but with 2 million extra people potentially out of work, labour fears today's predictions. unfortunately, they are a good reflection of the situation we're likely to find ourselves in. but, of course, this really is down to the measures that can be put in place to sustain businesses and jobs. they are absolutely critical, not just now, but for the future health of our economy.

these numbers are well—informed guesses, not final or inked in, but the direction is clear and this virus is dragging the economy down. jobs are being lost and the national income is shrinking and that affects notjust how ministers balance lifting restrictions in the weeks and months to come, but what governments can and can't pay for in future, how much they borrow and how much tax we pay. people say i capture the essence of those personalities... rebecca douglas' wedding photography business has disappeared for now. i've been employed since iwas13, i'm now 36 — i don't know what it's like to not work. so, i think, as an entrepreneur, there are ways in which you're soul—searching and trying to find a route through, where perhaps it feels quite unfair. she's trying to find ways through — the job for so many of us, the job for the country, too. laura kuenssberg, bbc news. the potential damage to the economy is notjust a short—term threat — there will be a longer

term impact, as well. 0ur economics editor faisal islam has been looking in more detail at the latest forecasts. a month down the road and still surreal scenes of a closed country. the cogs of the economy paused to give space to protect public health, but it's not without its own cost. today, the government's own internal forecaster set out what that could be if these scenes last for a further two months. the numbers are huge. britain's economy could shrink by 13% in 2020, in the case of a three—month coronavirus lockdown. that would be a far larger contraction than seen during the financial crisis over a decade ago, the world wars, and the only precedent is the depression of 1920—21. or, if there is a bounce back, it won't be, under their scenario, until next year. this means permanent damage and government borrowing at 14%

of the size of the economy, the highest since world war ii. if you were to see the sort of decline in gdp that we think would be consistent with a three—month lockdown, then you wouldn't have seen a quarterly fall in the economy like that in living memory. the hope, though, is that that is going to be a temporary rather than a permanent problem, and we don't end up scarring the long—term potential of the economy. these scenarios are worse than the gloomy global forecast of the international monetary fund. this is something that we haven't seen in any of our lifetimes. the last major crisis was the global financial crisis. at that the global economy shrunk by 0.1%. right now, in our baseline, we are talking about growth at negative 3% so this is the worst since the great depression. so, no surprise that shutting down hits the economy hard, but the sheer magnitude of the hit is shocking.

this is what the shutdown looks like in real life at an industrial park, with furniture manufacturers closed, the cranes over there, idle, the freight distributors shut, the brewing depot not working either. why? to protect public health, to protect the nhs. so, there was a trade—off going in to this. does the same trade—off exist coming out of this — lift the lockdown to boost the economy? it isn't quite as simple as that. one of britain's top medicine companies, astrazeneca, is helping ramp up testing but the boss says the absence of vaccines and cures has consequences for a return to normality. we have to balance, of course, saving as many lives as possible but also a return to a normal life, and restart the economy, because a lot of misery and turbulence is now generated with so many people losing jobs, etc. it's not going to be a few weeks, is it? it's going to be months, maybe longer? if we all do a good job working together, then i hope that we can move out of this acute phase, and into a more chronic situation.

a more chronic situation would have a lower number of cases that we can manage. in the absence of a vaccine, even with a massive economic hit, it won't be as simple as just lifting the lockdown. faisal is at the treasury. in your report you mention the sheer magnitude of the hit we are talking about. these are staggering numbers, numbers that the people working in this institution would never have imagined seeing regarding the british economy in their lifetime. two months ago a fall of a third of a percent over a couple of months would be seen as pretty bad but this isa would be seen as pretty bad but this is a third of the entire economy. there is a bounce back but the overall impact over the year is an economy a seventh smaller with consequences forjobs economy a seventh smaller with consequences for jobs and economy a seventh smaller with consequences forjobs and for public borrowing. it is important that even these grim numbers, underlying that

isa these grim numbers, underlying that is a strong bounce back, and in order to get that you need the treasury rescue money out into the economy and you need to get some sort of handle over the health crisis and you need to provide confidence to workers and consumers. you won't get that if the lockdown is lifted prematurely. thanks for joining us. the european commission is urging eu members to co—ordinate any plans to ease the lockdown measures and to maintain rules on social distancing. the death rate in individual european countries as a result of the pandemic has varied widely, with germany and austria experiencing fewer than five deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while italy and spain have seen more than 30 deaths per 100,000. here in the uk, the rate of deaths is just over 17 per 100,000 inhabitants. as the lockdown continues here, a limited number of shops and businesses are being allowed to reopen in italy,

spain and austria. 0ur rome correspondent mark lowen sent this report. a tiny step towards unlocking italy. camilla cocchi's baby shop reopening today after five weeks, as this country dips its toe back into normal life. a limited experiment to see how italians react, with new rules on hygiene and limiting numbers inside. we're really glad, really excited. of course, it's not normal times, so we are worried at the same time. but we have to work, we have bills to pay, we have rents to pay, we have wages to pay. leaving your business that you started is like leaving your baby. customers, too, are adapting, welcoming a reward, but with apprehension. i feel strange more for them, for the babies, for my children,

but we have to be happy and somehow brave. "i'm really pleased", says eight—year—old elena, "because i haven't been out since the 4th of march. "i'm emotional." books and stationery shops, too, can reopen, but some regions think it's too early and have kept them shut. confidence will take some time to return here. italy found itself as the testing ground for the rest of the world for how to respond to this outbreak and how to lock down a country, and now, once again, it's an experiment of how to ease those restrictions. the hope here is that it doesn't become an example of reopening too soon and the virus spiking again. it is a risk that this country is taking. as are some others with far fewer deaths, like austria, opening garden centres, diy shops and smaller stores from today. for cafes a nd restau ra nts, though, it's a longer wait. spain, too, is cranking back up, construction and some factory workers restarting.

the eu has warned its members that easing restrictions will lead to new cases. spain couldn't afford that, now having to turn a convention centre into a giant field hospital for europe's second worst outbreak. "but it's improving, patients are responding well", says this doctor. "today we are discharging eight of the 50 on our ward." "it will, though, be a slow recovery and we must learn to live with this enemy." mark lowen, bbc news, rome. the indian prime minister narendra modi has extended his country's lockdown to the 3rd of may. the three—week measure was announced last month, with only a few hours' notice, and it meant millions of poorer workers lost theirjobs. india has reported nearly 9,000 active cases of coronavirus and 339 deaths so far. from mumbai, our correspondent yogita limaye reports. jobless in the city for weeks... all they want is to go

back to their families. there's no home to stay inside here. social distancing is a luxury they can't afford. but for defying the lockdown, they were beaten and chased away. mohammed islam, a construction worker, is living on a footbridge. he told me he's been thrown out of his rented room because he has no money. that's the railway station. the initial three weeks of lockdown ended and so lots of workers who live in the city but are from india's villages thought that, perhaps, they could get to go home. but the shutdown has been extended and the fight to contain the virus continues. health workers are going door—to—door in mumbai's slums, screening people. many believe the restrictions have slowed the spread of covid—19. but those on the front line say the statistics don't reflect reality. i spoke to a doctor at a mumbai state—run hospital. he didn't want to be

identified, fearing reprisal from the government. doctors in other parts of the country also told the bbc that the numbers were being under—reported. india's health ministry didn't respond to our questions about official data. behind this stillness are people worried about how india's hospitals will cope. but for the unseen workers, there is nothing more scary than a city that's stopped. yogita limaye, bbc news, mumbai. in the united states, the number of dead linked

to coronavirus has risen above 25,000 today — double what it was a week ago. president trump, in an ill—tempered news conference, told journalists he had "total" power to lift the nationwide lockdown and rejected suggestions that his response to the crisis had been inept. 0ur north america editor jon sopel reports. america is hurting. the coronavirus has now claimed over 25,000 lives. nearly 600,000 people have been infected. the economy is reeling, with 17 million made unemployed injust three weeks. and schools are closed. but at last night's white house briefing, the president spent the first 45 minutes railing at the media for being unfairto him. was the timing of your travel ban botched? a lot, we did a lot. look, look. you know you're a fake. you know that. your whole network, the way you cover it, is fake. the big issue is how to reopen the economy,

on whose say—so, and how quickly. we want to be very, very safe. at the same time, we got to get our country open... do you think there is a possibility, then, that what you do is, you open it incrementally? do you think people go back to restaurants, concerts, the cinema ? i think we're going to boom, i think it's going to go quickly. our people want to get back to work, and i think there is a pent—up demand like there hasn't been in a long time. as part of reopening america, do you want to reopen the borders so that people from europe and the uk... at the right time. very good question, actually. well, i'm going to have to take a look. the president says he has total power to decide on ordering the restart of business. the individual states say donald trump doesn't have that power, we do. the president's position isjust absurd. it's not the law, it's not the constitution. we don't have a king, we have a president. and entering this reopening phase, if you will, is very, very important. there may be a fight going on over

who gets to flick the switch to reopen the us economy. but that's a good sign. it suggests that the curve is being flattened and that social—distancing is working. at a grim time, that is a sliver of good news. this afternoon in the cabinet room with chairs set suitably far apart, donald trump met those who have come through the other side of coronavirus, though jokingly the president told one woman not to come too close. are you 100%? i would say 85. stay away from me, please! laughter stay away! donald trump was today in listening mode but the decision, the big decision on reopening the economy, is coming very soon. jon sopel, bbc news, washington. the low level of testing for coronavirus in the uk means it's impossible to estimate how many people have contracted it. many people are ill at home

and don't seek medical attention and the vast majority of people who become ill with covid—19 will make a recovery. but for those who get seriously ill, the experience of contracting the virus, being isolated from loved ones, can mean that recovery is a long and challenging process as our correspondent sian lloyd reports. covid takes the fight out of you. everything around me was just melting away, to be fair. struggling to breathe, and severely dehydrated, this was the moment paramedics arrived at paul nicholls' home to take him to the queen elizabeth hospital. the 52—year—old didn't need a ventilator but was seriously ill. from his hospital bed, he thanked the nhs and warned others... "don't roll the dice and chance it", this tweet said. one of the nurses said we've got to close the curtains now, and i said, are you taking the dead away? she said yes. it just suddenly struck home, at that stage, that could be me.

that could have been me. atjust five months old, amelia is one of the youngest patients to be treated for covid—19. now safely home, her mother has thanked the team for all their support at such a worrying time. we were shocked. i knew before the doctor walked in, cos of what he was wearing... he had all his ppe on, so i had prepared myself. but i was very shocked, you never think it's going to happen to you or your family. i can't tell you what this feels like. it's amazing. i want to thank everybody for keeping me going over the last ten days — i really appreciated it. alison woolford was treated with oxygen and also recovered. here, smiling on hearing that she was going home. the number of nurses and health care assistants who came in to me and said, "my goodness, isn't it fantastic?